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Historic Pebble Beach Golf Links will host the second Signature Event of the PGA Tour Season for the 2024 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The top 50 in the latest FedEx Cup standings, as well as a small list of others who have earned qualification, will descend upon the Pacific cliffs of California to compete for a record purse for this event.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and, of course, motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support and I hope you can put these rankings into proper use for The Farmers Insurance Open.
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#10. Jason Day
Despite coming off a poor performance at the Farmers Insurance Open that resulted in a missed cut, you simply do not ignore Jason Day at Pebble Beach. He possesses the second-best course history numbers of any player in the field at Pebble Beach Golf Links, with six different top-7 finishes in his last eight appearances at this tournament.
Since 2018, he has really done the bulk of his damage at Pebble Beach, despite the multi-course rotation that is always in play here. In the last five years, he has gained an average of 4+ strokes on the field at PBGL. After glancing at my year-over-year notes, course history is definitely more advantageous here than the normal PGA Tour stop and I am inclined to feel great about Day's chances at a place where he has been awesome for 10+ years.
#9. Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood opened his 2024 season with a mediocre performance at The Sentry before heading back to make a couple of starts on the European Tour. He returns this week for the second Signature Event with a little added confidence, after jet-setting from Hawaii to Dubai and taking down Rory McIlroy in electric fashion to win in Dubai.
Tommy Fleetwood has birdied the last 2 holes to win the Dubai Invitational. It’s his first win since 2022 and was an impressive display throughout the whole week. Hopefully a big 2024 is in store.
TOMMY, TOMMY TOMMY, TOMMY TOMMY, TOMMY TOMMY FLEETWOOD! 🙌🏴 pic.twitter.com/o97fpd03Qn
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) January 14, 2024
It was extra meaningful for me to see him win it with clutch putts down the stretch, something that has held the reigns on him breaking through for victory on the PGA Tour. While Tommy has minimal history at this event in the past, I feel like he has the ideal attributes to succeed with his accuracy off-the-tee and surgical iron play. Fleetwood is also on a tear with the putter, something he is going to need to lean heavily with the tricky and pesky POA greens at Pebble Beach.
#8. Max Homa
Max Homa was my favorite option last week at the Farmers Insurance Open due to his somewhat sneaky good recent form and prowess within the comfortable confines of the California borders. He made a nice early charge on Sunday and I was impressed with the way he seemed to battle all week at Torrey Pines without catching any breaks and bringing his A-game with him. He did gain nearly 3.5 strokes ARG which is comforting for backers when heading to Pebble Beach and their microscopic greens.
Homa has elected to skip this event the past 2 seasons but had a nice 3-year stretch from 2019-2021 which saw him record 7th, 10th, and 14th place results despite not being nearly the caliber player that he is right now. He has managed to move his way up to becoming the #7 ranked player in the OWGR rankings and a win this week could vault him into the top-5.
#7. Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa was 5 under par through his first 8 holes at the Farmers Insurance Open last week and was in a tie for 1st place at the time. 28 holes later he was loading his clubs in the trunk of the car and heading home before the weekend at Torrey Pines in a shocking missed cut. Once again, the putter let him down making it 5 consecutive starts where Morikawa has lost strokes to the field in a tournament with the putter that has shotlink data.
He missed a ton of fairways in route to the 75 he shot in Round 2 at the Farmers, only hitting 8 total on the day. I would expect to see a major bounce back this week as Morikawa is just too good with that club. Over the last 24 rounds he has played, Morikawa is averaging 70.8% of fairways hit, which is still 10% better than PGA Tour average during that span.
#6. Patrick Cantlay
The last two times that Patrick Cantlay has played the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he finished in 3rd and 4th place. For the icy Cantlay, he surprisingly plays very well in these long, grueling pro-am rounds. There is no doubt that I would have him easily ranked inside the Top-5 this week in my power rankings, had it not been for his recent struggles with his iron play.
Cantlay has now lost strokes on approach in all three starts in the 2024 season which is just not like him. He gained strokes on approach, normally his strong suit, in the previous 6 starts to end last season. I'm not sure if it has something to do with a swing adjustment he's working on or possibly a new club set up, but anytime a great player is struggling with their iron play to start the season, it's usually best to steer clear until that gets ironed out.
#5. Viktor Hovland
After what was an epic 2023 for Viktor Hovland, he's been taking it easy to start his 2024 season but is set to make his second start of the year at Pebble Beach. Hovland earned the rest after notching 3 impressive wins last summer at the Memorial, the BMW Championship, and finally at the Tour Championship.
It's time to get the engine back up and running, and this should be a course where he can play with the gas pedal floored and hammer that Driver which was dialed in. In his final 6 starts of last season, he leveraged a lethal combination of distance and accuracy off-the-tee, averaging a ridiculous +6.5 strokes per tournament gained Tee-to-Green. While his PGA Tour history at Pebble may appear a bit murky, do not sleep on his incredible week where he cruised to a US Am Championship.
. @OSUCowboyGolf Viktor Hovland steamrolls into US Am Finals. After winning 7-6 & 7-6 the likable Norwegian advances 3-2 finishing w 6 straight birdies. Definitely expect he’ll win prestigious tourney tomorrow at Pebble Beach. @news9 pic.twitter.com/i7FnfFeknK
— Dean Blevins (@DeanBlevins) August 18, 2018
#4. Jordan Spieth
I mentioned earlier in this article how there was one player with better course history at this event than Jason Day...that man is Jordan Spieth. Spieth won this event back in 2017, and has played this tournament every year for the past 10 years as one of AT&T's ambassadors, and why wouldn't he? Spieth dominates here, with six top-10 finishes since 2014 and two podium finishes in the past 3 years.
I thought Spieth looked great at the Sentry where he finished in 3rd place while picking up strokes on the field with both his irons and the putter. He talked extensively at the Hero World Challenge about how he has rededicated himself in the offseason to his craft and I feel great about his chances for a resurgent 2024 campaign. If you could hand-pick a spot for him to get off to a great start, that spot would be Pebble Beach, just stay away from the cliffs Jordan...please. Poor Greller.
Jordan Spieth hit this ball from the edge of a cliff at Pebble Beach 😱
(via @GOLFonCBS)pic.twitter.com/eEFP8pdgbv
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) February 5, 2022
#3. Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is finally set to make his 2024 season debut after electing to skip The Sentry to focus on his overseas schedule which was a highly successful venture for Rory. One week after blowing a late lead by hooking a Driver into the water when it mattered most to ultimately lose to Tommy Fleetwood, Rory rebounded like only he can by winning the Dubai Desert Classic.
McIlroy has had a week off the prepare and acclimate himself back on American soil, but it's hard for me to believe that this tournament is where he would have chosen to start his season if not for his obligation to complete in Signature Events after skipping The Sentry. The last time he played this event was in 2018 which resulted in a poor missed cut. That said, he did finish in a tie for 9th when the US Open was held at Pebble in 2019 and if he can bring stateside the game he carried in Dubai, he could get his season started with a bang!
#2. Xander Schauffele
Hand up, I have been critical of Xander Schauffele and his ability to finish golf tournaments for some time, but if he can continue to give himself meaningful reps on Sundays around the leaderboard, it feels like only a matter of time before he capitalizes and breaks through the wall to lift a trophy. Schauffele finished T3 when the US Open was held at Pebble Beach with a final round 67 that was the best final round score of any player inside the top-10 that week.
Schauffele lost nearly 3 strokes putting at the Farmers Insurance Open and still managed to record his third consecutive top-10 finish to start the 2024 season. This will mark his 3rd straight week playing, and his form is arguably the best on Tour to start the 2024 season. There could be a slight weight lifted off his shoulders after being the defacto hometown kid at Torrey Pines and if he just continues knocking at the door, eventually that door is going to open!
#1. Scottie Scheffler
Let me be the first to say, that I was digging deep for any reason to NOT make Scottie Scheffler that number-one player this week in the interest of creating a little additional drama for this article. That said, it would have been reckless and disingenuous to list anywhere except the top and still be taken seriously. He's simply too good and deserving of the World #1 label.
A T17 finish at The American Express two weeks ago where he finished -21 under par was his worst performance in the last 6 months. Minus 21...T17...his absolute floor performance. Scheffler is still firmly in the midst of one of the greatest Tee-T0-Green runs we have ever seen in the history of professional golf. I do have faith and belief that his work with world-renowned putting instructor Phil Kenyon will eventually pay dividends, and the Tour needs to watch it out when it does.
Take a look at the stat profile below, I am confident in saying that I have never seen anything quite like it. He's the clear # player in the world, and the clear #1 player in my Top-10 rankings this week.
Thanks again for reading and we'll be back next week with Power Rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open!
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